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Cambridge University Land Society discusses the future
Posted: 25.01.2007
Pretty much anything is possible where the future of the rapidly developing telecommunications industry in Britain is concerned.
But probably reassuringly for many it will be the consumer who will decide exactly what happens, and how fast it moves.
This was the forecast that emerged today (Thursday, 25th January 2007) from a discussion at the Savile Club in Mayfair hosted by the Cambridge University Land Society (CULS).
Around 28 senior businessmen and women attended the CULS Global Economy Forum event where the principal speaker was Mr Michael Grabiner of Apax Partners.
Douglas Blausten, Senior Partner of Chartered Surveyors and Property Consultants Cyril Leonard, chaired the event.
And, as telecommunications development and expansion takes place, there are likely to be consequences for the property market – as the industry switches from circuit switches to digital, the view expressed was that there would be surplus of office space.
“Making it very interesting for a lot of us operating in the property sector,” said Mr Blausten.
In the specific telecommunications area, irrespective of what has happened in recent years in developed markets, there are expected to be “huge opportunities” in undeveloped markets.
Whereas for much of the 20th century nothing moved - it was largely a time where there was a ration of switches to the subscriber and little more – content and connectivity is where the market is now going.
Since the 1980s when there was still a waiting time to get a home telephone, there has been privatisation, dramatic changes in technology, and a liberalisation of the marketplace.
But as the CULS session heard, “perception was way ahead of reality” and there was a resultant collapse, with bottlenecks in the access to networks.
Around 2004-05 the market “woke up” as this bandwidth bottleneck was removed and costs concequently have come down hugely.
One very experienced view expressed at the CULS event was that now “there is a bloodbath in the market, and prices will continue to come down.”
Huge markets are emerging – mobile broadband is coming, mobile TV is taking off, and internet TV is “a big one”.
- For fixed telecommunications operators, the prediction is that there ill be a lot of new growth.
- Alternative operators have consolidated and will move forward.
- Big players are coming back into the mobile market having been temporarily absent.
- And for cable the big expectation is triple play – broadband, fixed line, and content.
On the negative side, it was felt that VOIP – described as a “disruptive service” – was developing more slowly than expected.
But in the end the customer will decide what happens in terms of future telecommunications development.
And while pretty much anything is possible, Internet Protocols (IP) technology will be the main core. |
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